Scenario Development for Business Strategy

From Scenarios to Strategic Intent

Scenario development is a tool used to help your organisation determine its strategy in uncertain and complex environments. The van Horn Consulting scenario development process will drive your leadership team to consensus around the critical decisions you must make, and actions you must take, in the near to medium term to be successful in your business.

Objectives

• Build a set of possible scenarios for your industry, including milestones and likely characteristics of each.
• Build consensus amongst your leadership team around the core decisions and time frames that you will work with in the near and medium term.
• Develop a strategic intent for your business, inclusive of action plans and desired results for all components of your organisation.

Step One: Scenario Development

To decide on the strategic intent for your business, the scenario development approach builds a picture of possible futures for your industry in a participatory workshop. In the step-by-step process, your leadership team will first explore the events that have happened in the past to create our current business climate. Then the team discusses the external factors and forces that will have an impact on your industry in the future. In the next step, the team will take a decision on the factors and forces that are most uncertain and that will have the highest impact on your business. Based on this decision, the facilitator will guide the group in describing the various ways that your industry might evolve over the years. By the end of the workshop, the group will arrive at consensus about several possible scenarios for your business focus.

Step Two: Strategic Intent

After some background work developing your scenarios into full narratives of the future for your industry, your team will reconvene to discuss and decide on a Strategic Intent based on the possible futures that have been agreed. This is usually a lively discussion, informed by past experiences and dreams for future success. One approach some teams opt for is to go through live simulations of strategic options by running them through the different scenarios that have been developed. By the end of the workshop, your leadership team will have a well-developed statement of strategy based on consensus and with specific milestones in place to measure progress.

Outcomes

• Strategic Intent stated clearly and measurably
• Leadership team in agreement about the way forward
• Your organisation will be poised to implement strategic actions

Format and Timeline

Note: timelines are in overall time (not working days), and are subject to change based on organisational needs.